Analysis 2016: Likely voter polls favor GOP White House, regardless of nominee

I keep seeing Republicans argue about which particular candidate will or won’t be able to beat the Democrat nominee for president. My gut feeling is any of the top three contenders—Donald Trump, Sen. Marco Rubio (Florida), or Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) can beat both the likely Dem nominee Mrs. Hillary Clinton or the underdog candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vermont).

I looked at some polls today, and my gut feeling aligns with Likely Voter poll results. What most don’t realize is that Likely Voter polls aren’t as biased towards Democrats as Registered Voter polls are. Dems know they always have a turnout challenge, one reason I suspect President Barack Obama is eager to confer citizenship on foreign nationals, most of them in poverty, from countries like Mexico where socialist-style regimes, even if they’re not outright socialism, are popular.

There’s a reason we aren’t seeing an influx of Europeans or Filipinos. Democrats are selecting potential voters based on handout policy.

Dems’ turnout challenge is also the reason they fight Voter ID. As long as they get a vote, they could care less where it comes from, even if an illicit vote cancels your own vote.



Current GOP frontrunner Donald Trump (via video/Greta Van Susteren/Fox News)

On those Likely Voter polls, expert Nate Silver, pretty much the golden boy of polling, explains why they’re useful in gauging GOP outcomes. While every state is admittedly different, nowhere was the upset factor more evident than in the midterms of 2014 when, as The Week put it, “Democrats got absolutely clobbered.

As Silver put it in an analysis, “The polls were skewed toward Democrats.”

Polls are not only a snapshot in time, by the way, they are a powerful weapon in the right candidate’s hands and can be used to mobilize bias for a candidate.

If you look at current polls on matchups between either Democrat candidate against any of the top three Republican candidates, there’s a plus for the GOP.

Averages on the matchup polls are based on a collection of Registered Voter Polls.

There was only one Likely Voter poll conducted 2/11-15 by USA Today/Suffolk. That poll indicated Trump would best Mrs. Clinton by +2, Rubio would best her by +6, and Cruz would best her by +1.

The same poll indicated similar results if Sanders, by some miracle, was to become the Dem nominee. Trump would beat him by +1 and Rubio would beat him by +4. That poll indicated Sanders would best Cruz, however, by +2.

So if you wanted a dream ticket for the GOP, the winning combination would likely be a Trump-Rubio or Rubio-Trump ticket. Rubio’s margins are bigger in the matchups, so that may explain why many donors are looking to the young senator as a potential winner. However, you also have to consider that you have three top candidates on the GOP side polling against one top candidate (Mrs. Clinton) on the Democrats’ side. Current matchup poll advantage: Democrats.

As I’ve often said, I believe Sanders is simply on the stump for optics—he appears to be the only candidate Dems could come up with to oppose the controversial former secretary of state whose email woes will surely worsen as records are pried loose from tight bureaucrats’ hands.

There’s also the matter of Mrs. Clinton’s horrible performance as secretary of state. Much fodder there for negative campaign advertising.

There’s only that one Likely Voter poll in current matchups between Dem and GOP, whereas all the national polls on the GOP candidates are Likely Voters, and of course Trump has maintained a lead for quite some time. While pundits and powerbrokers mix and match numbers to suit their goals—we saw Karl Rove do this in an embarrassing manner on the night Mitt Romney lost to President Barack Obama—if you look at the chart of ongoing polling dating to September, all the candidates have dips and gains. Trump has held the lead consistently in a very large field.


As supporters push their particular candidate, I’ve learned a few things from my immersion into politics. Here they are in no particular order.

Rubio is, as I’ve said for a long time, a come-from-behind candidate. That’s exactly how he won his Senate seat, starting his campaign far behind his competitor, but eventually overtaking his competitor. Rubio, however, needs to win a state outright. That’s obvious.

Frontrunner Trump is currently being targeted by a PAC led by Katie Packer. The Ricketts family, said The Washington Times, has contributed to the anti-Trump PAC. Packer rails against Trump’s “conservatism of convenience.” This I find hilarious.

Packer worked on the Romney campaign. Although conservatives ultimately came around to Romney, it wasn’t easy to bring them aboard. Why? Romney had once been pro-choice. He evolved. He had condemned a coal power plant, and his energy policy contributed notably to the hysteria revolving around carbon emissions today. Besides all that, his signature bill, Romneycare, has been a financial pit for the state of Massachusetts since its inception, and as I tried to tell many a Republican in 2012, Obama hung Romneycare around the governor’s neck because it was government mandated insurance like Obamacare. That was fair, by the way, considering the well-deserved criticism Obama endured for his health tax bill. Obamacare is the classic bait-and-switch.

For Packer to assume the mantle of conservatism is like an evangelical campaigning for gay rights. So when Trump responds negatively to the assaults, he certainly has a valid point.


Meanwhile the SEC Primaries follow the Nevada Caucuses, and with the exception of Texas, it looks like Trump is in command. Cruz at present is leading in the Lone Star state. Trump currently has 68 delegates, Cruz has 11, and Rubio has 9.

Once nominees for both parties are official, selecting the right vice presidential candidate will be key. Clinton will likely pick a politician. Politicians have records and those will be held against him or her.

Trump will probably also pick a politician, but here’s the unique aspect of Trump as nominee. He has voiced political opinions in the past that are at odds with conservative philosophy. But Trump has never cast a single vote on a piece of legislation. He has had no impact on the mess our country is in today. No one else at the top can lay claim to that.

Also much has been made of Trump reorganizing his companies to protect his assets. Well, in each of those re-orgs, he got a sweet deal. So that, hopefully, would translate to the pathetic character of deal-making we have witnessed on both sides of the aisle. If he made sweet deals for himself, he can certainly do that for us, the people.

The PPACA/Obamacare tax bill will begin to implode after 2016, a fact Obama knows and took great pains to avoid while he was in office via various deferrals and waivers. This can be an issue detrimental to Dems because that tax bill was their blighted idea. Americans will see premiums increase and co-pays and deductibles continue to rise. Mrs. Clinton started the healthcare ball rolling uphill when she was First Lady. That is a matter voters should be reminded of because many of them do not remember her meddling.

Toss in the fact the Clintons’ circle has run this country the whole time Obama has been in office. I wrote about that previously, and why Republican candidates don’t make use of such information is beyond me.

So, my Facebook friends with whom I have had various convos about this election, yes, I believe the GOP can easily best the Dem candidate come November as long as the crybabies who declare, “I won’t vote for _____ if he’s the nominee!”, please grow up and realize that any of those three candidates will be superior to Mrs. Clinton or the addled socialist Sanders in the White House.

I haven’t endorsed a candidate, and I won’t. I don’t receive money from a party or PAC.

Nor will I bash our candidates because legacy media will happily do that for us on behalf of the Dems’ nominee. I will report on unfair practices by candidates in hopes of contributing to unity and correcting the record.

I rarely get to vote for a candidate I admire most of all—that has happened once in my lifetime in a presidential election. But I am smart enough to know what would happen should another Democrat take over the Oval Office. I hope Republicans and Independents bear that in mind as well.

This country, if a Republican doesn’t take the White House, will come unglued. I’m not a drama queen, but I guarantee you that unfortunate outcome should Mrs. Clinton or Sanders prevail come November.

(Commentary by Kay B. Day/Feb. 23, 2016)

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About Kay Day

Kay B. Day is a freelance writer who has published in national and international magazines and websites. The author of 3 books, her work is anthologized in textbooks and collections. She has won awards for poetry, nonfiction and fiction. Day is a member of the American Society of Journalists and Authors and the Authors Guild.
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